Indicators for recent developments in industry, trade and services
THE PROJECT
Short-term business statistics, or simply short-term statistics (STS), are a set of indicators that describe the most recent developments in industry, trade and services. For these statistics to be relevant, they must reflect the current developments with the shortest delays. The ESS Innovation Agenda aims to meet the demand for more timely STS indicators. As part of the agenda, the ‘Working towards early estimates for short-term business indicators,’ or ‘STS Early Estimates,’ project aims to develop early estimates for STS indicators and publish these indicators as experimental statistics in 2025.
THE MOTIVATION
STS are monthly or quarterly statistics for understanding economic developments and are the earliest statistics released by Eurostat to show emerging trends in the European economy. STS provide data for:
industry;
construction;
trade;
services, excluding financial and public services.
STS data are published between 30 and 90 days after the end of the reference period. The development of the STS Early Estimates project is driven by user needs for better timeliness. As such, the project aims to publish data on the different sectors of the European economy earlier.
THE METHODOLOGY
The aim of the innovation activity is to develop early estimates for the STS indicators. The methodology builds on the results of the Statistics Awards Programme for Nowcasting and on projects of National Statistical Institutes aiming at delivering early estimates. It involves:
using nowcasting methods to publish the industrial production index and the industrial producer prices index with short time delay;
optimised data collection and estimation methods, for example, by automated data transfer from the accounting software system and by reporting entities providing data as early as possible; it also involves using imputation and estimation methods, and machine learning;
using new data sources available with very short deadlines (e.g. data from daily truck toll mileage index and new car registration data).
MORE INFORMATION
Eurostat short-term business statistics overview
THE TEAM
Member States involved: Member States involved in Eurostat grants on early estimates.
External partners / researchers involved: Participants of the Statistics Awards Programme for Nowcasting on industrial production and industrial producer prices time series.
Technologies and methodologies involved: Optimised data collection and data processing, new data sources, use of nowcasting methods (e.g. machine learning and econometric models).
Contact: ESTAT-STS-DATA@ec.europa.eu
LAST UPDATE: January 2025
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